Welcome to The Radar, a Your Site column in which uses a blend of data and opinion to shed light on need-to-know stories from up and down the Premier League. This week:
🔷 Why are Brighton struggling?
🦅 Palace banking on Strand Larsen
🔍 A player to watch this weekend
Brighton's meeting with bitter rivals Crystal Palace, live on Your Site on Sunday, has taken on extra significance for Fabian Hurzeler after his side squandered another late lead against Everton.
A run of one win in 11 is testing the patience of some fans.
Most of the games have been decided by narrow margins. Brighton have only beaten by more than one goal once, against Liverpool at Anfield. Six of the 11 have been draws. But the bottom line is that they have slid from fifth to 13th in two months.
Hurzeler is adamant their form will turn. "I'm quite convinced that at the end of the season we will be where we want to be," he said this week. A first win of his tenure against Palace, another side currently out of sorts, would help ease concerns.
Any other outcome, though, would intensify the pressure on the 32-year-old, who steered Brighton to an eighth-placed finish last season but was subjected to boos from some fans after the draw with Everton and the loss to Fulham before that.
The underlying data highlights some of their issues lately.
The recent run of poor results has coincided with a spike in their numbers of expected goals against, betraying defensive vulnerability. At the same time, their rolling, five-game average of expected goals for has trended in the opposite direction.
The result is a team giving away more chances than it is creating for the first time since Hurzeler's opening months in charge last season, albeit with some improvement in the last two games. Brighton had the better opportunities against both Fulham and Everton.
That is little consolation, of course, to fans who watched their side ship costly stoppage-time goals in those games. But it might at least help to explain Hurzeler's optimism that a return to their previous level of performance is in the offing.
It is of course on the pitch that his side will need to convince, though, and there is a clear need for more imagination on the ball.
Brighton have had the sixth-most sequences of 10 or more passes among Premier League teams this season, with 258, and yet not a single one of them has ended in a goal.
They will need to do better against a Crystal Palace side who tend to cede possession. The Seagulls were defeated in the same fixture last season with 65 per cent of the ball. They will need to find a clinical edge too. Goalscoring has become an issue generally.
Last season, Brighton overperformed their expected goals, scoring 66 times from an expected total of 59.15. This season, the pendulum has swung in the opposite direction.
They have scored nearly four goals fewer than expected. Only bottom side Wolves and Sunday's opponents Palace have underperformed their xG by a bigger margin.
Hurzeler insisted this week he is not jealous of Palace's January outlay on forwards following the club-record signings of Brennan Johnson and Jorgen Strand Larsen. But some frustration would be understandable. Brighton remain reliant on Danny Welbeck.
The 35-year-old has scored eight Premier League goals. A purple patch earlier this season prompted talk of an England recall. But his output has dried up recently and that's a problem given no other Brighton player has scored more than three.
Hurzeler's only available alternatives up front are the exciting but raw Charalampos Kostoulas, who is only 18 and in his first season in England, and a player, in Georginio Rutter, who most Brighton fans would agree is far better suited to the No 10 role.
Hurzeler can also point to a lack of depth on the flanks, where injuries to Yankuba Minteh and Kaoru Mitoma have proved problematic. Brighton have lost the sixth-most days to injury in the Premier League this season, with Yasin Ayari the latest to fall.
There are, in other words, some mitigating factors for Hurzeler. But more dropped points against Crystal Palace, a side Brighton have only beaten twice in 13 meetings in the Premier League, would be even more difficult for fans to stomach in light of recent results.
If Brighton have had a tough time lately, then what of Crystal Palace?
In the space of under a month, they have become the first Premier League side to be defeated by sixth-tier opposition in the FA Cup, lost their captain to Manchester City on the eve of a game, and had their manager confirm his departure at the end of the season. All while going nine Premier League games without a win.
They head to the Amex Stadium hoping their late January additions can help inspire a turnaround. Evan Guessand's arrival on loan from Aston Villa preceded that of Strand Larsen from Wolves but it is the big Norwegian they are banking on.
The £48m fee appears steep for a player with one goal in 22 appearances this term at Wolves. But there will be few questions if they can unlock the first-season version of the player. His total of 14 non-penalty goals in that campaign put him level with Aston Villa's Ollie Watkins in a star-studded list of top scorers.
A goalscoring debut at the Amex Stadium, as Jean-Philippe Mateta manages a knee injury, and the disappointment of a failed Deadline Day move to AC Milan, would instantly ease any doubts.
After Brighton vs Crystal Palace on Super Sunday comes Liverpool vs Manchester City. Antoine Semenyo was outstanding on his last visit to Anfield with Bournemouth in August, scoring twice. Can he hurt them again in different colours?
Friday Night Football sees Leeds take on Nottingham Forest, live on Your Site Premier League and Main Event from 7.30pm ahead of the 8pm kick-off.
Newcastle against Brentford is the Saturday Night Football, live on Your Site Premier League and Main Event from 5pm and kicking off at 5.30pm
Watch Brighton vs Crystal Palace from 1pm on Your Site Premier League and Main Event on Sunday, kicking off at 2pm, before Liverpool vs Man City at 4.30pm.
Is Senne Lammens the goalkeeper Manchester United needed? The last column looked at his positive impact this season and also examined Ezri Konsa's passing prowess for Aston Villa.
